Spain to be last (7.5, William Hill)
Should be the UK, and Spain's ballad should survive with some scattered jury points. But 7.5 is value here for a jury performance that wasn't mightily impressive and Germany is getting plenty of love from televoters who, ironically, love to hate Eurovision. Maybe take the UK too (2.7 on the Exchange) for a book that should come good.
Netherlands to win the jury (251 with Unibet)
The message of the jury winner in 2019 was female empowerment. We've moved on now in 2021 and race is a much bigger topic in public service broadcasting equality focus than two years ago. This is on point for message, vocally a class above the rest (all the rest), has the home town support and is drawn 23rd. Yes it's a long shot, and Portugal at 21s (Unibet) may be more up your street for the jury suprise, but this should not be the rank outsider in this market
San Marino to win televote (34 with Unibet).
Flo Rida does lift Adrenalina up to crazy levels of excitement. Now I am hard stretched to see a San Marino more than top 10, but I am not fully convinced of Italy's gap at the top of that market (Ukraine 5.5 with Bet365 is more tempting there). But what I am convinced by is that social media and in particular the British casuals going crazy for this and I expect San Marino to trade lower in play on this market and the winner market. This number could be the wildcard that Moldova 2017 was, and capture the attention of those others who hadn't engaged in the contest prior to the Saturday night.
Sweden top Nordic (11s with Betsson/Unibet)
Iceland has moved to a position of high standard deviation for me, not knowing if the covid situation helps or hinders their chances, and odds on in this market is a minor stretch. Finland (best priced 3.25) is the most likely challenger, but the unknown now is if it helps or is hindered by Italy's mega presence.
That's why I look at Sweden. Tusse's vocal has been the danger point for these two weeks, but I note the late draw, the X Factor winner style song, and the crowd reaction which was positive through the three minutes. Sweden's history of jury love, should that continue again, may well be enough to win this one
Serbia top 15 (1.96 on the Exchange)
Hurricane benefit from Croatia not making it and no other Yugoslav nations in the final. This hoovers up points from the region's televotes, and I've been impressed by their vocal and power image that local juries would appreciate this as well. Considering this final has considerable dead weight, top 15 just on local votes should be an absolute certainty, with top 10 (7.2 on Exchange) also not out of reach.
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