Good morning all,
Waking up this morning feeling good, love it when a rehearsal ups a song and Cyprus, Croatia and Ukraine did something that made a positive impression. I wonder who, if any, can have momentum to challenge Destiny to win this semi who despite the drift in the win market seems to be stable odds on to win the semi. Late running order and assumed jury love explains that, but I think this may stutter somewhere based on what we saw. Trick now is to work out what the general public think is the contender to match when those clips get revealed.
I'm at the day job today as well as online. Should be able to catch each run through but may be late on typing things up.
San Marino
Win semi - 18, Qualify - 1.28
No Rida. Stand in looks like they are the real deal in terms of being part of the act, so that suggests that this is what is going on. No hologram equivalent or anything like that. Huge miss.
Colours are wacky and all over the place like her preview clips of the other songs, which isn't coherent to a stage show at all. Love the song, vocal is fine if uninspired, and the whole thing is just OTT in the wrong way.
San Marino's been working the circuit to try and get enough qualify points. This semi is weaker, sure, but it will have performances that gives more of a 'vote-for-me', rather than the rather apologetic 'this is what I do' that we currently have. Borderline.
note: haven't seen the pyro last fun through, so can't comment on that.
Estonia
Win semi - 126, Qualify - 2.95
Uku is looking very much the hunk with buttons undone and a prim and proper white shirt. Alone on stage, with music video effects on the back.
Concensus is that this is going for the competant jury vote to get through the semi. It appears far less chaotic than Senhit and while I don't massively like the sawtooth comparison, for many who find Senhit too much he will appear a breath of fresh air. Harmony is solid enough to my ears, but it is just a song ultimately. Lots of nice moments but nothing that grabs any of us.
But the casual voter may be more interested in the good looking guy with a conventional song. Good rehearsal may be enough. Exchange dropped down to 2.3, feel that might be fair on this one, and Finland/Latvia are in this semi.
(I have seen all performances but not had time to blog sadly, catching up now and will write some quick posts)
Czech Republic
Win semi - 151, Qualify - 3
Love the song, don't love this. Benny is walking through the motion, both visually and vocal effort wise, and there's none of the cheeky winks at the camera this needs. Straight up pop song but without the energy to be interesting at all.
I don't think the Czechs are making it now, because, I don't think there's anything Benny can do to get his votes stolen by a taller gentleman who performed today as well.
Greece
Win semi - 21, Qualify - 1.18
Love Stefania's look and makes her look like the next pop star. Vocal is pretty much as studio as well. The visual element with the invisible dancers is a memorable televote moment, and the production is slick enough for the juries as well. And the Sergey effect is strong with the walk up the wall/camera tilting.
I was a fan of this and think when the public get to see this on 2nd rehearsal clips that there may be another push. This ended up pretty much where we started on the overall market, might be worth an e/w punt.
Austria
Win semi - 101, Qualify - 2.4
The staging of this resembles the Lisbon contest in so many ways, with the LED's stripped back and Vincent giving a solo performance that is well framed by the spotlights. No vocal issues, but no highlights. Would be odd for the jury to resonate to this, the depth of voice is not as strong as the obvious equivalent, Cesar Sampson.
Currently 2.1/2.89 and sometimes you have to hold your hands up and go - I don't really know what's value here. Hmmm.
Poland
Win semi - 101, Qualify - 3.75
This has now matched at under 3s to be last in the semi. That's brave knowing the diaspora, but the rehearsal was that poor in terms of vocal ability and likeability. Not qualifying secured, but maybe this will be played in a few Polish preschools, maybe.
Moldova
Win semi - 34, Qualify - 1.36
All a bit tame compared to what was expected, but Natalia is styled in a way that makes her look more like a pop diva, in a good way at that. It's all a bit inoffensive for a song that should be edgy and in your face. Not in any win contention and the qualify market has this pushed out to 1.5 at time of writing.
Iceland
Win semi - 7.6, Qualify - 1.15
Better than expected and deserved press poll winner. I find the routine a bit sub standard, but the space is there to absolutely love each and every one of them on stage. Numerous great gags that make it feel oh-so-Eurovision, and I'm impressed by the voice enough too.
Winner candidate - yes. More so than anything else I've heard so far. But what about the jury you ask? Well EuroJury needs a pinch of salt, but the jury there gave it heaps of points on the back of a frankly terrible Icelandic studio video. On full tilt this can certainly be top 5 with juries, which is close enough. This will be the chosen one from the Dutch broadcaster to give the Grand Final pimp running order slot too I am sure.
Currently backed in to 10/11 to win the Eurovision Song Contest as people balance their books. Makes sense to me.
Don't forget bloody Fire Saga....
Serbia
Win semi - 40, Qualify - 1.7
Very good, very slick, true professional quality. I'm not sure on the catchment for this in terms of getting votes, but that is good enough to qualify and be in the middle of the scoreboard on the final. Oozes class in a genre where that is often hard to find.
Tips today
I don't mind tipping Iceland at 10s, can still see that shortening in lower when we get the media interest next week.
Greece to qualify is short at 1.14, but I think there's enough there to make it easily.
San Marino not to make it to the final at 4.33 feels very decent as the will he/won't he drama goes on.
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